Q3 2026 in Baja California Sur: More Dollars, More Deals, and a Market That Rewards Smart Buyers
Every quarter I go back to the MLS and look at what actually closed, not what is listed or what people are talking about over dinner in San José. Closed sales are the only numbers that tell you where money is really going. This quarter I reviewed every closed transaction in the Baja California Sur MLS between July 1 and September 30, 2026, across houses, condos, land and commercial property, from Los Cabos to La Paz, Todos Santos and the East Cape.
The short version: more money changed hands this summer than a year ago, buyers have more leverage than they have had in a long time, and a few segments are quietly pulling ahead.
The quarter at a glance
The MLS recorded 512 closed sales in Q3 2026, up 5.6% from the same quarter last year and slightly ahead of Q2. Total sales volume reached $457.7 million, a 13.7% increase year over year and 12.8% above the spring quarter. In other words, dollar volume grew more than twice as fast as the number of transactions.
At the same time, the median sale price came in at $336,500, about 10% lower than Q3 2025. That does not mean values are falling across the board. It reflects where activity grew: more sales in La Paz and more land transactions, both of which sit at lower price points than the Corridor. The typical property took 193 days to sell, nearly two weeks faster than a year ago.
Houses carry the market
If you want to understand this quarter, start with single-family homes. Houses accounted for 170 closings and $270.9 million in volume, which is 59% of every dollar traded in the region. House volume was up 29% from Q3 2025, driven largely by the oceanfront estates on both Corridors.
Condos moved in the other direction on paper. There were 164 condo sales, almost 10% fewer than a year ago and 15% fewer than in Q2. But I would not read that as weakness. As of November 9 there were 330 condos under contract in the MLS, roughly one for every four active condo listings, and condos closed at 95.1% of their list price on average, the strongest ratio of any property type. Buyers are clearly still competing for well-located, well-priced units. The pipeline is full; it simply has not all closed yet.
Land: the quiet comeback
The segment I am watching most closely is land. Lot sales jumped 21.5% from Q2 to 130 closings, essentially matching last summer's pace. More telling, land is now the fastest-moving major property type, with a median of 160 days on market, and buyers paid 93.1% of list price compared with 88.3% a year ago. That gap between asking and closing is narrowing, which usually means sellers have priced more realistically and buyers see value.
With a median lot price of $133,000, land remains the most accessible way into Baja real estate, especially for buyers who want to build on their own terms and on their own timeline.
Where it is happening
La Paz was the standout of the quarter. The city and its surroundings recorded 133 closed sales, up 46% year over year and the most of any zone in the state. For buyers who want a real Mexican city on the Sea of Cortez, with a slower rhythm and lower entry prices than Los Cabos, the numbers say they are no longer the exception.
The East Cape also grew, with 39 sales, up 18%. The Pacific side, including Todos Santos and Pescadero, held steady at 64 closings. San José del Cabo was flat at 80 sales, while Cabo San Lucas dipped about 10% to 60.
The two Corridors tell a different story. They closed fewer homes than last year, but they still dominate in dollars. The Cabo San Lucas Corridor generated $115.4 million in volume, nearly double last year, and the San José Corridor added $129.6 million with a median sale price of $1.55 million. Together, that is $245 million from just 124 transactions.
Luxury: fewer trophies, bigger checks
Sales of $1 million and above slowed slightly to 79 closings, compared with 88 a year ago. Yet the volume behind them climbed to $318.1 million, up 20.7%. Seven of every ten dollars traded in Q3 came from the luxury segment.
At the very top, 14 properties sold for more than $5 million, accounting for $185.7 million on their own, a 67% jump from Q3 2025. The largest sale of the quarter was a $33.5 million oceanside home on the Cabo San Lucas Corridor. The ultra-high-end buyer is not waiting for a better moment; they are acting when the right property appears.
Buyers or sellers?
This is the question I get most often, and the data is clear: Baja California Sur is a buyer's market right now.
At the Q3 sales pace, there are about 26 months of inventory across the MLS. A balanced market is generally considered to be around six months. By property type, commercial sits at roughly 15 months, houses at 20, condos at 24 and land at 40. Properties closed at an average of 92.9% of their final list price, and 565 listings expired during the quarter, more than the 512 that sold.
Months of inventory is calculated as active MLS listings as of November 9, 2026, divided by the average monthly closed sales in Q3 2026.
What this means for you
If you are buying, you have real room to negotiate and genuine choice in every category. Use it, but do not mistake a buyer's market for a market without competition. The best condos and the best-priced homes are still going under contract quickly, so be ready to move when the right one appears. Land and La Paz offer the most accessible entry points right now.
If you are selling, pricing decides the outcome. Buyers are active, with 650 properties pending across the MLS as of November 9, but they are disciplined. Overpriced listings sit and expire; homes priced to the market from day one are the ones closing. A clear read of your own micro-market, not the headline numbers, is what makes the difference.
Every neighborhood in Baja has its own numbers, and the averages above can hide very different stories from one development to the next. If you would like to see what this quarter means for your property or the area you are considering, I am happy to walk you through it.
